Langley Real Estate

Trends and Price Forecast

Langley, BC

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Langley house prices have dropped significantly since peaking and prices have dropped below $1 million.
  • Langley condo prices are also down since their peak in 2018.
  • High-end Lower Mainland markets like Downtown, West Vancouver, and the Vancouver Westside have been hit hardest but the surrounding areas are all impacted.
  • There has been a sudden increase in buying activity this Spring however there is also an abundance of for sale signs. As we enter the summer months, many sellers will likely accept price concessions rather than wait to re-list next Spring.

Prices in Langley are following an uneven downward path but are still far beyond what most families would consider affordable. At this point, price declines appear to be part of a long-term trend in Langley and across Metro Vancouver.

Some people blame higher interest rates and tighter mortgage rules for the weaker market, but these arguments don’t hold much weight. Mortgage rates are still at rock-bottom lows and the market weakness began in 2016 when foreign buyer taxes came into effect rather than in 2018 with the introduction of the stress test. Langley and Metro Vancouver house prices have primarily weakened because foreign direct investment has shifted to Toronto and Ottawa.

This article covers:

  • Where are Langley prices headed?

  • What are Purchase and Listing Trends?

  • Should investors sell?

  • Is this a good time to buy?

1. Where are Langley home prices headed?

Home Price Overview

The good news (for buyers) is that prices are dropping all across Metro Vancouver, but the not-so-good news is that prices are still beyond the reach of a median Metro Vancouver household with an income of $75,000 (before taxes). There is, however, a glimmer of hope for buyers as prices continue dropping through 2019.

Langley Detached House Prices

Since the peak, house prices in most parts of Langley have dropped over $100,000.

From the beginning of 2015, Langley house prices climbed $500,000 to a peak of $1.1 million. Benchmark house prices have now dropped $100,000. Langley house prices are very volatile. It’s possible that prices might drop another $100,000 between now and the end of 2020. If you’re looking to buy or sell your home in the next three years, you should definitely pay close attention later in this article when we explore recent trends in buyer and seller behaviour.

West Vancouver, Downtown, and the Vancouver Westside are the hardest hit but Langley, Surrey and Richmond have experienced significant price declines too.


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Langley Townhouse and Condo Prices have Fallen

Langley condo prices skyrocketed to a peak in the Summer of 2018. The good news for first-time home buyers is that since then prices dropped significantly. The benchmark Langley condo is almost affordable without help from the bank of mom and dad.

Langley townhouse prices are headed in the same direction as condos. The good news for townhouse owners is that house prices have dropped a lot more than townhouse prices, so the gap between the two has narrowed. For townhouse owners seeking to upgrade to a full house, this could be a great opportunity.

Still a challenge for first-time home buyers

Although Langley home prices have dropped significantly they are still not very affordable. To put this into perspective, a first-time home buyer household earning $75,000 (the median Metro Vancouver household before tax income) can only get a $320,000 mortgage. This makes it painfully obvious that to buy an entry level $400,000 condo, a first-time home buyer needs to save a $80,000 cash down payment or receive a very generous gift from mom and dad. For most people, that’s just not possible with rents as expensive as they are these days.


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2019 Langley House Price Forecast

Looking forward to 2019, we see most forecasters expect prices to drop.

Metro Vancouver 2019 Home Price Forecast

The brunt of 2019 price drops will likely be felt by higher priced properties (i.e., more expensive neighbourhoods and detached single family homes).

Given the forecasts, the current market weakness, and the increased downward price pressure, prices will likely remain flat or drop for the next few months. As well, homebuyers and homeowners shouldn’t expect much price appreciation between now and the end of 2020.

2. What are Langley Purchase and Listing Trends?

2016 was the big year for home sales and the subsequent two years attracted fewer paying homebuyers. Metro Vancouver kicked-off 2019 with even slower home sales than the prior two years.

Trending Toward Seller’s Advantage

What does this mean exactly? Well, the market for all homes (detached, townhome, condo) are all trending toward a position where buyers have more power than sellers. This means buyers can leverage the weaker market to negotiate discounts and incentives. The positive outcomes for buyers are lower prices, more selection, fewer bidding wars, and ultimately a little less stress.

Langley is not officially in full-blown buyer’s territory though. While the market is trending towards a buyer’s advantage, it’s currently in a balanced market. Take note that as supply has increased, Langley home prices have dropped. This means that the current Langley prices may be unsustainable in a healthy balanced market. So, if new construction completions later this year push the conditions into a full-blown buyer’s advantage we could see major prices discounts in late 2019-2020. That means home buyers should drive a hard bargain and paying more than the list price should be almost unheard of. Yay for first-time home buyers!

Fewer buyers – No longer a foreign investment hot spot

2019 has been a slow year for purchases of all types of properties, which is certainly not something we’re used to seeing. The City of Vancouver and more central suburbs have seen the most dramatic falls in purchase and sales. Our research suggests that foreign buyers are moving on to other cities and countries. Scanning news outlets across Canada and reviewing realtor marketing materials, it becomes clear that any foreign money still coming to Canada seems to be directed toward Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal.

The number of Langley houses sold is trending consistently below past years while the number houses listed for sale has been trending much higher than past years. These trends of lower demand and higher supply explain a reduction in price.

Similarly, the number of Langley condos and townhouses purchased have been lower compared to previous years and Langley has experienced dramatically higher active listings of these types of homes. As a result, basic economic theory tells us that we can expect Langley may experience dramatic condo and townhome price reductions.

A decrease in pre-sales reflects a more disciplined market

Pre-sales, which are purchases of brand-new homes from developers, have trended down substantially. Since developers need to sell at least 70% of a project to secure financing and begin construction, they are trying to entice buyers with price discounts, move-in allowances, and cool amenities. Some developers have offered up to a $100,000 bonus to the buyer realtor who can convince their client to buy!

According to MLA advisory, the current pre-sale activity levels “reflect a more normalized pace of sales for the Lower Mainland.”

Continued below


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Causes of the Slowdown

At Mortgage Sandbox, we break down our market analysis to five key factors: affordability, capital flows, government policy, supply and popular sentiment. Read the full report to understand how these factors are affecting prices in Metro Vancouver.

Five Factors Driving Home Prices

Five Factors Driving Home Prices

3. Should Investors Sell?

From a seller’s perspective, now is a better time to sell than in two years as CMHC, a Government of Canada Agency predicts that house prices will be flat or drop for the next two years.

To benefit from the best-case scenario, a home buyer should talk to their mortgage broker about prioritizing flexible loan conditions and mitigating risk. Find out more about the benefits of a mortgage broker.

Potential for a highly supplied market

There’s potential for an overwhelming surge in supply and this would bring more downward pressure on prices.

41,000 homes were under construction in Metro Vancouver (700 in Langley) in February 2019. These are due to complete in 2019 and 2020. If a significant number of those homes were pre-purchased with the intention to flip them, they could bring a ton of supply to the Burnaby market.

4. Is this a good time to buy?

With buyer negotiating power and dropping prices, 2019 will be a good time to buy a Langley home. However, 2020 may be even better.

If you are thinking of buying just be sure to drive a hard bargain, and cover your bases with smart and educated decisions. Don’t bite off more than you can chew.

Buying a home is a big decision, so check out Mortgage Sandbox’s Canadian Home Buyer Guide so we can walk you through the end-to-end process and get you ready to buy your new home!


Where will mortgage rates be by 2021?