Torontonians like to compare the local market to other global cities, so it is important to point out that most of Toronto’s market indicators are similar to those seen recently in Manhattan, Sydney, Stockholm, and London, where markets have recently weakened significantly and home prices have been dropping.
Toronto real estate has also weakened but not enough to benefit buyers. House prices are down from their 2017 peak, while condo prices have charted a steady upward trajectory.
Economists broadly agree that higher interest rates and tighter mortgage rules will have a larger, longer-lasting dampening effect on home sales than we previously thought.
This article covers:
Where are prices headed?
Recent buyer trends
Should investors sell?
Is this a good time to buy?
After peaking in the summer of 2017, Oakville house prices made a comeback in 2018, but in the last 6 months prices have dropped almost $60,000. Prices are now down $135,000 from the peak achieved in June 2017.
Condo prices were relatively unaffected in 2017, but after peaking in May of 2018 prices have since dropped $35,000 wiping out much of the recent gains. February and March saw a price rise but it’s too soon to determine is this is a trend. Is seems unlikely since condo supply in Oakville is relatively high.
Based on current market conditions and the trend over the past three years it looks likely that prices will continue to drop in 2019.
Purchases are down and as a result, the markets for both houses and condos in Oakville are trending toward a position where buyers can negotiate discounts and incentives from sellers. This means more selection for home buyers, fewer bidding wars and less upward pressure on home prices.
Similar to 2018, this year has begun with plenty of homes for sale.
The chart below shows there is enough supply of houses to last 4 months. Oakville has been flirting with a balanced market since last September.
If purchasers continue to wait on the sidelines while houses sit on the market, we can expect houses will head toward a balanced market. Time will tell which way the market goes.
The condo market has been much tighter than the house market. The market was balances in February but had dipped back to a sellers market. A balanced market is generally considered healthy but recently, in Canada, a soon as the markets have balanced, prices have begun to drop. This implies that because previously tight markets pushed prices abnormally high, a normal balanced market may not support the current prices.
We expect 2019 to be a weak year for real estate the Oakville. The brunt of price drops will likely be felt by higher priced properties (i.e., luxury condos and detached single family houses).
Condos likely won’t be unscathed in 2019. Given the forecasts, the current market weakness, and the increased downward price pressure, prices will likely remain flat or drop for the next few months. As well, homebuyers and homeowners shouldn’t expect much price appreciation between now and the end of 2019.
As a result unaffordability, purchases of Oakville houses have dropped 52% compared to 2017.
Since fewer people are buying, homes are sitting on the market for longer and supply of houses is piling up.
The Oakville condo market has began 2019 dramatically worse than previous years but bounced back in March. We will see as Spring progresses if a consistent trend unfolds.
At mortgage sandbox, when attempting to predict the future trajectory of home prices we look at five key factors.
Canada may be headed into a recession: A recession would reduce employment and lead to forces home sales and that puts downward pressure on home prices. The Canadian economy shrank in December 2018 as a result of slowing home sales. In a terrible self-reinforcing problem, the economic slowdown could cause the housing market to slow further.
Reduced borrowing capacity has pushed out family homebuyers: Mortgage stress tests and rising interest rates have effectively reduced the maximum amount people can borrow by 20% while condo prices rose by 20%. Perhaps home prices have surpassed people’s ability to pay? In July, CMHC, the government agency charged with helping Canadians achieve home ownership, reported that prices in Toronto “are higher than incomes, mortgage rates and other fundamentals can justify.”
Home prices outpaced people’s ability to buy: There are very few markets in the CIty of Toronto with houses available for less than $1 million, but only 10% of income earning households in Metro Toronto can afford a million-dollar home. Is it possible that the constrained supply has meant that only the top 10% wealthiest people in Toronto have been buying, and now that they’ve filled their boots, there’s no one left to buy at the current prices?
A Synchronized Global Real Estate Market Correction has dampened Foreign Buyer activity: Home sales have slowed in Manhattan, Sydney, Stockholm, London, and the list goes on. Perhaps global real estate investors have lost their appetite? Has the Chinese government been successful in their campaign to prevent citizens from taking money out of the country? If there were a global real estate downturn, how would this impact Toronto?
If Toronto is simply caught up in a global real estate correction, then at least there is no one to blame for the turn in the market. If this is the case, then it means that Canadian policies and government intervention will be powerless to change the global flow of capital and investment, and that’s a scary thought.
Foreign direct real estate investment is leaving Toronto: Seeking better value in other cities because Metro Toronto house prices are some of the highest in the world (i.e., foreign investors believe you should buy low and sell high). Evidence for this shift in investor interest is seen in the dramatic drop in real estate investment and simultaneous upswings of activity in Montreal and Ottawa.
All levels of government are coordinating to bring about a “soft landing”: Whether it’s federal mortgage, provincial foreign buyer taxes or local empty home taxes, the government will not rest until prices drop another 10 to 20%.
Some industry advocates blame the January 2018 stress test for causing a slowdown in the market but the slowdown began well before the stress test.
While fewer people are buying homes, the Metro Toronto population continues to grow: There is still a chronic undersupply of housing. As a result, we are left with an inherent contradiction. How can we accept so many more people but sell fewer homes? The problem is we didn’t build enough to satisfy the wealthy and the middle class, so the wealthy (and their bankrolled children) are the only ones buying homes.
In 2018, 34,000 new homes were built in Metro Toronto and a record 71,000 homes were under construction at year-end. Those new homes will help alleviate the extreme supply shortage in Toronto. Keep in mind, rental vacancy needs to reach 3% before Metro Toronto can be considered to have enough supply, and vacancies are currently below 1%.
A change in buyer sentiment has led to a Wait-and-see Strategy: Another theory is that homebuyers can buy at today’s prices but are playing-it-cool until they see a turn in the market. Low sales volume means the prices of most recent homes are a less reliable indicator of where the market is headed. This is because prices set under heavy sales volume are more representative of the consensus of many buyers. Low volume implies that many buyers believe properties are mispriced and are sitting on the sidelines. Declining volume in a market with rising prices is usually a leading indicator that a price drop will follow.
Here are some recent headlines and a video you may be interested in:
Home ownership elusive for young Canadians who fear going broke (BNN Bloomberg)
Forecasts are intelligent guesses, and when making investment decisions, we often focus on the most likely outcome. Prudent investors also consider for the worst-case and best-case scenario.
To benefit from the best-case scenario, a home buyer should talk to their mortgage broker about prioritizing flexible loan conditions. These allow you to get approved for more money, move quickly to close, and have lower fees, rather than focusing solely on rates. Every lender has very different lending rules, and most people underestimate how these impact:
How much you can borrow.
How easy it will be to meet all their conditions by the closing date.
How quickly you can pay off your debt.
The penalties and fees charged to pay-off the mortgage or move it to another lender.
To mitigate the risk of a worst-case scenario, try to buy a home at a price that allows financial breathing room, and plan to live in it for 5 to 10 years.
If you are investing to earn rental income, then your risk is lessened, but if you are not earning enough rental income to cover expenses, and you have greater reliance on a price rise in the property, then you should move with an abundance of caution. Buying in a dropping market is risky because it can be difficult to get financing. Banks lend based on the current market value verified by an independent appraisal and don’t consider the price you’re paying.
From a seller’s perspective, likely now is a better time to sell than in two years.
Buyers of houses certainly have more negotiating power. So long as you aren’t taking on an uncomfortable amount of debt and this is your “forever home”, 2019 will be a good time to buy but 2020 may be even better.
Oakville condos have also recently entered balanced territory and this means buyers can extract discounts and perks.
At the end of the day, a home is a place to live more than it is an investment. If you feel you need a home to have the lifestyle you’ve always wanted, then now is the best time since 2008 to be a buyer. Just be sure to drive a hard bargain and keep in mind that prices will likely continue to drop after you buy your home. It’s impossible for everyone to perfectly time the peaks and troughs of the market.
We recommend also you also read this article on the current risks present in the real estate market.
Although Toronto realtors will be crying the blues because their revenue has dropped 26% (more than in the 2008 financial crisis). Nevertheless, the market still is not balanced and there are bidding wars. There is obviously still a supply shortage but prices have maxed out. No matter how much a buyer may want a home they can’t spend more than they have.
At present, there is a lot of uncertainty in Canadian real estate markets. It’s troubling that some analysts are painting an overly positive picture of the market because the government still has a lot of work to do in order to balance the market and there are still pent up risks. UBS, a bank that invests for 50% of the world’s billionaires reports that Toronto and Vancouver have a higher degree of risk. Add to this the possibility that Toronto and Vancouver may be dragged down in a global real estate downturn.
On balance, current market conditions favour sellers however with high prices and a lot of risks, there are far fewer buyers interested in homes. You could try to time the market, but nobody knows the best time to buy. If buyers wait, rising interest rates will erode their home buying budget yet further price reductions would allow them to buy more home for less money. Based on the slow sales in 2017 and 2018, it appears most prospective buyers are taking a “wait-and-see” approach. From a seller’s perspective, if you were planning to sell within the next 3 years, then now may be an opportune time. Forecasters predict further interest rate increases will follow in 2019.
If your family is growing and you need a larger space, simply a place to call your own, or you believe timing the market is pointless, then take advantage of these tips to reduce your risk.
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