Will Vaccinations Prevent A Third Wave of COVID-19?
Canada is struggling to contain the second wave of infection, and we expect localized restrictions and lockdowns.
Canada has not yet flattened the curve on wave 2. Several vaccines have been approved and Prime Minister Trudeau has announced that, if all goes well, most Canadians will be vaccinated by September 2021.
Taking into account the time between now and September plus the spread of the UK and South African variants which are more infections, we should probably be preparing ourselves mentally for a third wave of infections before settling into the “new normal”.
The greatest controllable challenges at this stage are:
Anti-maskers - we should be happy to inconvenience ourselves if it means we can avoid the third wave of infection.
Vaccine supplies, shipping logistics, and set-up of enough vaccination sites.
Anti-vaxxers - a quarter of Canadians don't want to take the COVID-19 vaccine.
More than 25% of Canada’s population (almost 10 million people) is considered at higher risk.
Federal government guidance prioritizes early COVID-19 vaccination for the following groups:
residents and staff seniors’ care homes
adults 80 years of age and older, followed by adults 70 years older
health care and personal support workers
adults in Indigenous communities
As additional vaccines become available, inoculations will be extended to:
homeless shelters
correctional facilities
housing for migrant workers
essential workers who face additional risks to maintain services for the functioning of society
A study headed by Dr. Kristine A. Moore, medical director at the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, explored scenarios for the pandemic's evolution. Her research team predicted that the second wave in the Fall of 2020 was a likely scenario.
Now that we are in the midst of the second wave, we need to look ahead to what’s next.
Scenario 1 - Second Wave is the Last Wave
Canadians continue to follow health policy guidance and wear masks and continue social distancing until enough people are vaccinated to provide herd immunity. The second wave is the last.
Scenario 2 - Larger Third Wave in 2021
By May 2021, most of the vulnerable have been vaccinated, many Canadians will stop wearing masks and social distancing. They will hold the mistaken belief that vaccinating the most at risk is good enough.
Lax social distancing plus the introduction of more infectious COVID variants lead to the third wave of infections. The lives of many people who are vulnerable, but didn’t know it, would be at risk in this scenario. The provinces would likely have to reimpose local restrictions and lockdowns.
Businesses would have an opportunity to re-open between waves.
Scenario 3 - Extended Second Wave
As a result of the new more infectious variants and restriction non-compliance, we never truly overcome the second wave using social distancing. Instead, it is finally beaten using vaccinated herd immunity.
High case counts over an extended period of time mean that governments will leave restrictions in place for longer.
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