Could the population of the GTA shrink this year?
It’s possible that, without international immigration, Metro Toronto is shrinking. This is supported by the growth data from 2018/19 published by statistics Canada.
In the twelve months ending July 2019, Metro Toronto’s population grew by 127,575 (2.0%) after 138,886
| Growth Factor | Persons | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Natural Increase | 31,117 | The difference between the numbers of births and deaths. |
| Net International Migration | 138,886 | Immigrants, returning emigrants and net non-permanent residents, minus people leaving to live abroad. |
| Net |
5,410 | Moved from Metro Toronto to another province or territory |
| Net |
-47,838 | Moved from Metro Toronto to elsewhere in Ontario |
| Total Net Growth | 127,575 | |
| Housing Required for New Residents | 51,030 | Assumes avg. of 2.5 people per household |
In a normal year, the natural growth rate is not sufficient to replace all of the residents who leave Toronto for other regions of Ontario. Metro Toronto relies on immigration to prevent its population from shrinking.
With the rise of work-from-home, even more, Toronto residents will likely choose to leave the city while at the same time, the pandemic has frozen immigration.
The population of Ontario shrank in the last six months of 2020, it's likely that the population of Metro Toronto contracted during this time.
The migration of digitally enabled workers from Metro Toronto to smaller, less expensive, cities in Ontario may explain why the unemployment rates in London and Hamilton are so much lower than in Toronto.
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