Could the population of Montreal shrink this year?
It’s possible that, without international immigration, Metro Montreal is shrinking. This is supported by the growth data from 2018/19 published by statistics Canada.
In the twelve months ending July 2019, Metro Montreal’s population grew by 65,205 (1.5%) after 68,641 net new immigrants moved to the region. Here’s a breakdown of the growth numbers:
| Growth Factor | Persons | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Natural Increase | 14,006 | The difference between the numbers of births and deaths. |
| Net International Migration | 68,641 | Immigrants, returning emigrants and net non-permanent residents, minus people leaving to live abroad. |
| Net |
-3,325 | Moved from Metro Montreal to another province or territory |
| Net |
-14,117 | Moved from Metro Montreal to elsewhere in Quebec |
| Total Net Growth | 65,205 | |
| Housing Required for New Residents | 26,082 | Assumes avg. of 2.5 people per household |
In a normal year, the natural growth rate is not sufficient to replace all of the residents who leave Montreal for other regions of Quebec. Metro Montreal relies on immigration to prevent its population from shrinking.
With the rise of work-from-home, even more, Montreal residents will likely choose to leave Montreal while at the same time, the pandemic has frozen immigration.
The population of Quebec barely grew during the last six months of 2020, it's likely that the population of Metro Montreal contracted during this time.
The migration of digitally enabled workers from Metro Montreal to smaller, less expensive, cities in Quebec may explain why the unemployment rate in Quebec City is so much lower than in Montreal.
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