Is Vancouver Shrinking During the Pandemic?
It’s possible that, without international immigration, Metro Vancouver is shrinking. This is supported by the growth data from 2018/19 published by statistics Canada.
In the year to July 2019, Metro Vancouver’s population grew by 39,045 (1.5%) after 45,666 net new immigrants moved to the region. Here’s a breakdown of the growth numbers:
| Growth Factor | Persons | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Natural Increase | 7,422 | The difference between the numbers of births and deaths. |
| Net International Migration | 45,666 | Immigrants, returning emigrants and net non-permanent residents, minus people leaving to live abroad. |
| Net |
198 | Moved from Metro Vancouver to another province or territory |
| Net |
-14,241 | Moved from Metro Vancouver to elsewhere in B.C. |
| Total Net Growth | 39,045 | |
| Housing Required for New Residents | 15,618 | Assumes avg. of 2.5 people per household |
In a normal year, the natural growth rate is not sufficient to replace all of the residents who leave Vancouver for other regions of British Columbia. The region depends on immigration to prevent its population from shrinking.
With the rise of work-from-home, even more, Vancouver residents will likely choose to leave Metro Vancouver while at the same time, the pandemic has frozen immigration.
The population of B.C. shrank during the last three months of 2020, it's likely that the population of Metro Vancouver contracted even more.
The migration of digitally enabled workers from Metro Vancouver to Kelowna may explain why Kelowna’s unemployment rate is lower today than it was before the pandemic.
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