Metro Vancouver
Real Estate Trends and Price Forecast

HIGHLIGHTS

• The Metro Vancouver housing market is sending mixed signals. While overall conditions remain in buyer's market territory, certain segments are shifting. Detached houses and townhouses are now trending in favour of sellers, meaning the balance of power is slowly moving. Condo apartments, however, continue to favour buyers.

• Multi-factor analysis identifies Metro Vancouver as a moderate-risk real estate market.

• Mortgage rates have eased from their peak but remain elevated relative to the 2010–2020 average, limiting buyer budgets.

• Economic uncertainty persists due to shifting immigration policies, trade wars, the war in Iran, and fluctuations in interest rates. All factors that influence future market dynamics.

This article covers:

1. What is the state of the Vancouver real estate market?

2. Which way are prices going?

3. How affordable is Vancouver?

4. Is there much risk in the Vancouver market?

5. Should I sell?

6. Is now a wise time to purchase?

1. Has the Vancouver Housing Market Been Going Up or Down?

Overview of the Vancouver Property Market

Metro Vancouver remains one of the world's most livable cities. With 3 million residents nestled between the Pacific Ocean and the North Shore Mountains, it is easy to see why people are drawn here.

What Makes Vancouver Special:

• Stunning Scenery: Ski in the morning, kayak in the afternoon, all within the same day.

• Green Oases: Stanley Park and countless urban forests offer respite from city life.

• Mild Climate: Warm summers and wet (but manageable) winters beat the rest of Canada's harsh conditions.

• Global Village: A multicultural tapestry that creates vibrant, welcoming neighbourhoods.

• Foodie Paradise: With a bustling restaurant scene, you have world cuisines at your doorstep.

The Reality Check: Vancouver's housing market remains notoriously expensive. Affordability continues to challenge residents at all income levels.

The months of inventory (MoI) in Metro Vancouver, an important indicator of market balance, are currently sending mixed signals.

While the overall market remains a buyer's market, certain segments are showing signs of shifting.

Detached houses and townhouses are increasingly in favour of sellers, indicating a gradual shift in the balance of power.

In contrast, condo apartments continue to favour buyers.

Metro Vancouver Detached House Prices

The benchmark detached house price has dropped over the past year, but over the last three months, the decline has been modest. The overall trend suggests that sellers are gaining some leverage.

The detached house market is a buyer's market, but it is trending in favour of sellers. Inventory levels have dropped compared to last year, which disadvantages buyers. Meanwhile, purchase demand has risen, while the supply of active listings has fallen.

Are you interested in specific areas of Metro Vancouver? Try these reports!

Metro Vancouver Condo Apartment Prices

The condo apartment market remains a buyer's market and is continuing to trend in favour of buyers. Months of inventory have increased compared to last year, giving buyers the upper hand in negotiations. Prices have decreased over the past year, though they have held flat over the most recent three-month period. This stability after a longer decline gives buyers room to negotiate without feeling rushed.

Purchase demand has dropped, and active listings have also fallen.

Supply varies greatly between Vancouver sub-regions. You can use this to help identify motivated sellers.

Metro Vancouver Townhouse Prices

The townhouse market is a buyer's market, but like detached houses, it is trending in favour of sellers. Inventory levels have dropped, which reduces buyer options. Purchase demand has increased significantly, and the supply of active listings has also grown. Townhouse prices have declined over the past year but have remained flat over the past three months. The rise in demand combined with lower inventory is shifting the dynamic.

Rental Market Pressure

Average asking rents for one-bedroom apartments have softened over the past year. For investors holding rental condos, this creates a painful squeeze from falling property values combined with rising mortgage payments as loans from the low-rate period renew at higher rates.

Metro Vancouver New Construction Home Prices

Developers remain cautious. Some projects have been cancelled, and new pre-sale launches have slowed considerably. Developer profits are squeezed between falling prices and rising construction costs. Buyers may negotiate concessions such as additional parking or upgraded fixtures, but direct price cuts are rare.

Does this concern you? Read the Pros and Cons of Buying Pre-sale Homes

2. The Affordability Crisis Persists

Despite falling prices, Vancouver remains unaffordable for most residents. A typical first-time homebuyer household earning the local median income can secure only a modest mortgage. To buy a benchmark condo, a substantial cash down payment is required, far beyond what most households can save without family assistance. This gap between incomes and home prices continues to sideline potential buyers.

What about the rest of BC?

Read the Victoria Forecast and Okanagan Forecast.

3. Vancouver Property Market Risk

Based on Mortgage Sandbox Analysis, multiple factors are at play.

• Local Market Size: Vancouver is a large property market with a deep pool of buyers. Even in a slow market, sellers would likely find buyers.

• Rates Cycle: Interest rates are low, and the Bank of Canada is in an easing phase. Lower rates increase property-buying budgets and stimulate property markets. However, the full impact of this easing may take up to 18 months to become evident.

• Market Balance: This is a buyer's market, with months of inventory consistent with last year.

• Price Fundamentals: Prices have been stable recently, but they remain disconnected from local incomes, creating bubble risk. The benchmark price is many times the local median household income, whereas four to six times the income is considered sustainable.

• New Housing Supply: Construction levels are typical. The market can likely absorb completed units without a major impact on prices.

Overall, Vancouver faces a moderate risk of experiencing a market correction.

4. Where are Metro Vancouver home prices headed?

There is significant uncertainty in the forecasts for 2027 and 2028. Recent trends indicate softening demand in some segments, rising inventory levels, and mixed price movements. Prices have seen short-term stabilization but long-term declines. Potential price increases over the next few years may be limited unless there is a substantial change in underlying fundamentals.

Our 5-Factor Analysis

We assess five forces that help explain why several forecasters are anticipating softer price performance or potential price drops: Core Demand, Non-Core Demand, Supply, Government Interventions, and Consumer Sentiment.

How do we arrive at our forecast range?

Key External Variables

Outside the 5-factor model, there are external factors that could have a knock-on effect on the market. These include:

• Will the war in Iran lead to higher mortgage rates, as the Bank of Canada is forced to combat inflation caused by higher gas prices?

• As a result of the federal government's immigration policy pivot, how much lower will population growth be compared to recent years?

• Will mortgage rates reset at a new normal range that is higher than Canadians have grown used to, or will they return to pre-pandemic levels?

• Will Canada's trade dispute with the U.S. lead to weaker economic growth or a recession that would further pressure housing demand and prices?

Methodolgy

At Mortgage Sandbox, we provide a price range rather than attempting a single prediction because many real estate risks can impact prices. Risks are events that may or may not happen. As a result, we review various forecasts from leading lenders and real estate firms. We then present the most optimistic estimates, the most pessimistic prediction, and the average forecast.

Would you like to learn more about real estate risk? We've written a comprehensive report explaining the uncertainty level in the Canadian real estate market.

Our forecast inputs:

• CMHC Housing Outlook

• Reuters Housing Forecast Poll

• Royal LePage House Price Forecast

• RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook

• Canadian Real Estate Association Quarterly Forecast

• RBC Home Resale and Price Forecast

• TD Bank Economic Housing Outlook

• BMO Housing Outlook

• C1 Central 1 B.C. Outlook

• BCREA Forecast

5. Is it a good time to sell a home in Vancouver?

Annual Real Estate Cycle

The annual real estate cycle usually favours sellers in the first half of the year, and this seasonal pattern remains relevant in the current environment.

Current Strategies

From a seller's perspective, conditions vary by property type. For detached houses and townhouses, the market is trending in favour of sellers, so now may be a better time to sell than to wait another year. For condo sellers, the market remains tilted toward buyers, making selling more challenging. Price competition is higher, and negotiation power is limited.

Professional Advice

Our analysis is at the macro, birds-eye level. There are nuances at the neighbourhood level, depending on the property type and condition.

Sellers should always consult a mortgage broker early to prioritize flexible loan conditions and reduce the risk of mortgage cancellation penalties. Also, consult more than one real estate agent. Sometimes agents will tell you what you want to hear so they can win the listing and then lower your expectations once you are bound to the contract. You will want a realistic assessment of what cosmetic changes need to be made to lift the perceived property value, what recent properties like yours have sold for, and where the market is trending.

Planning to Sell? Check out our Complete Home Seller’s Guide.

6. Is this a good time to buy a Vancouver property?

Annual Real Estate Cycle

The annual real estate cycle usually favours buyers in late summer and autumn, and this pattern is expected to persist into 2027 and 2028.

Current Strategies

For buyers, the answer depends on what you are looking for. Condo apartments continue to favour buyers, with stable prices and increased inventory. Detached houses and townhouses, while still in buyer's market territory, are shifting. Prices have flattened in recent months, and inventory has dropped, meaning the window of maximum buyer advantage may be closing.

For those buying a forever home with a ten-year horizon, the risks of buying now are lower than a year ago. However, timing the market perfectly is almost impossible. Do not bite off more than you can chew when it comes to financing.

Professional Advice

Buyers should always consult a mortgage broker early in the process to obtain a pre-approval. Although current interest rates are easing, they are expected to rise within the next 9 to 18 months. With pre-approval, you can lock in a rate for 4 months before closing, helping mitigate financial risk.

Additionally, it is wise to consult more than one real estate agent. You need someone who will work with you on your terms. Buyer agents can increase their commission income by encouraging you to spend more or transact more quickly. Their earnings are tied to total annual transaction volume, so they earn the same commission regardless of how much time they spend helping you find a home that meets your needs and has strong long-term investment potential.

Planning to Buy? Check out our Complete Home Buyer’s Guide so we can walk you through the end-to-end process and get you ready to buy your new home!

Here are some recent headlines you might be interested in:

• B.C. home sales market struggles in February across all regions (CityNews | Mar 12)

• Here's why bets are rising for interest rate hikes including for Canada (Financial Post | Mar 09)

• Metro Vancouver home sales drop nearly 10% as market settles into ‘new norm’ (REM | Mar 05)

• Slower housing market mixed blessing for those looking to move up property ladder (CityNews | Mar 05)

• How to keep up with Bank of Canada interest rate updates in 2026 (Daily Hive | Mar 03)

• Bank of Canada: sometimes rate hikes needed even when economy is weak (Reuters | Mar 02)

• GDP Falls Unexpectedly In Fourth Quarter, but the Bank of Canada Is Unlikely to Move On Rates Yet (Morningstar | Feb 27)

• Zero population growth expected in Canada this year: budget watchdog (CBC News | Feb 26)

• Slow start to 2026 hides Canada’s sharpest housing market split in years (CMP | Feb 19)

• Bank of Canada says path for rates hard to predict with increased risks to outlook (BNN Bloomberg | Feb 11)

• Vancouver home insurance premiums rose nearly 10% in 2025, says report (BIV | Feb 06)

• Vancouver home sales continue sluggish pace to kick off 2026: real estate board (CTV News | Feb 03)

• Bryan Yu: B.C. housing market is weaker than the numbers suggest (BIV | Jan 28)

• Posthaste: These three provinces are bucking Canada's housing downturn (Financial Post | Jan 20)

• B.C. Court of Appeal rules couple must pay full amount of foreign-buyers tax (Vancouver Sun | Jan 20)

• Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Activity to Remain Subdued This Year (TD Bank | Jan 19)

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