Metro Victoria
Real Estate Trends and Price Forecast
HIGHLIGHTS
Metro Victoria home values have been volatile since 2021.
Detached and townhouse values have been broadly stable, and apartment values are trending downward.
While industry experts saw signs of improvement in late 2024, conditions deteriorated through 2025 and remain uncertain as we look toward 2027 and 2028.
Multi-factor analysis identifies Metro Victoria as a higher-risk real estate market.
Mortgage rates have eased from their peak but remain elevated relative to the 2010–2020 average, limiting buyer budgets.
Economic uncertainty is rising due to Canada’s immigration policy shift and the Trump administration’s tariffs, which could further weigh on the market.
This article covers:
What is the state of the Victoria property market?
Where are Victoria's prices headed?
Should investors sell?
Is this a good time to buy?
1. What is the state of the Victoria property market?
Overview of the Victoria Property Market
Metro Victoria is a region of 435 thousand people that is renowned for its mild weather and historical charm.
Victoria, BC, offers a distinct charm that draws people in, especially retirees. Here's a breakdown of why Victoria is attractive:
Charming and Historic Atmosphere: Victoria boasts a distinctly British feel, with beautiful Victorian architecture, manicured gardens, and a slower pace of life. This creates a quaint and elegant atmosphere that many find appealing. Its historical significance as one of the oldest cities in the Pacific Northwest adds to its character.
Mild Climate: Victoria enjoys a mild climate, with less extreme temperatures and few heavy snowfalls. This makes it particularly attractive to those seeking a comfortable year-round environment, especially retirees.
Beautiful Gardens and Green Spaces: Victoria is known as the "City of Gardens," with world-renowned attractions like Butchart Gardens. The city is filled with parks, green spaces, and meticulously maintained flowerbeds, creating a visually stunning environment.
Waterfront Lifestyle: Situated on the southern tip of Vancouver Island, Victoria offers easy access to the ocean. The Inner Harbour is a vibrant hub with boat tours, whale watching, and scenic walkways.
Cultural and Recreational Activities: The city offers a rich cultural scene with museums, art galleries, theaters, and festivals. Outdoor activities are abundant, including hiking, cycling, kayaking, and golfing.
Slower Pace of Life: Compared to Vancouver, Victoria offers a more relaxed and laid-back lifestyle. This is a significant draw for retirees seeking a peaceful and tranquil environment.
Retirement Haven: The combination of mild climate, beautiful scenery, access to healthcare, and a slower pace of life makes Victoria a highly desirable retirement destination. It is a very safe city, which is also a huge draw for retirees.
Capital City: As the capital of British Columbia, Victoria is home to the provincial legislature buildings, adding a sense of civic importance and providing access to government services and cultural events. This also provides many stable jobs.
It's important to note that Victoria is also an expensive city to live in, particularly when it comes to housing.
Overall, Victoria is a great place for people of all ages and backgrounds to live. It offers a high quality of life, a vibrant culture, and a strong economy.
For the time of year, supply levels are now above the levels seen in previous years. Buyers and sellers should expect a market similar to 2025, but with slightly more choice for buyers and somewhat less competitive conditions for sellers.
Metro Victoria Detached House Prices
Since the peak in Spring 2022, house prices in Metro Victoria have resembled a roller coaster, and the pattern has continued into the current cycle. The benchmark price climbed through the spring of 2025 and has been easing since late spring, forming a gentle arch rather than a sustained rise.
We believe politicians are hoping to guide the market toward a typical annual real estate cycle with modest, steady price growth in line with income growth, but recent trends suggest that actual outcomes may be weaker and more uneven over the next few years.
Demand in Metro Victoria is currently low. Although many people desire to buy a home, affordability remains a significant issue, as reflected in the number of successful purchases. Consequently, fewer individuals are able to achieve their dream of homeownership in these market conditions.
New homebuyers are struggling to enter the market due to high borrowing costs, which also prevent many current homeowners from making their next move. As a result, fewer households seeking to upgrade to a larger home can qualify for a new mortgage under today’s stress-testing requirements.
On the other hand, the total number of active listings is trending upward, up noticeably compared to a year ago. The inventory of detached homes has shifted further in favour of buyers, resulting in a more balanced market.
Metro Victoria New Construction Home Prices
Prices of new homes have now levelled off and are moving sideways. With this plateau at elevated levels and construction activity remaining high, some homebuyers may still find that earlier purchasers in their development paid more than recent buyers.
The new construction market has also faced significant challenges in Toronto and Vancouver. With the national media dominated by stories of pre-sales buyers facing financial hardship, it’s likely some Victoria pre-sale buyers will get cold feet. Based on economic fundamentals and a downshift in pre-sale buyer sentiment, prices for new products could soften in 2026.
Does this concern you? Read the Pros and Cons of Buying Pre-sale Homes
Much higher than normal construction levels persist, and market absorption challenges are likely. Developers may increasingly respond by offering price incentives or bonus amenities to encourage buyers, particularly in projects where sales momentum slows.
Market Risk
Based on Mortgage Sandbox Analysis, Victoria is at moderate to higher risk of a significant market correction.
Rising resale inventory, stretched affordability, and elevated construction activity all contribute to this heightened risk profile as we look out to 2027 and 2028.
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Metro Victoria Condo Prices
Metro Victoria's benchmark apartment price is trending downward and continues to follow an arch pattern, with prices rising into the spring of 2025 and then drifting lower since.
Purchases are increasing in certain areas; however, the growing demand is not matching the rise in active listings. Apartment inventory has surged compared to last year, creating conditions that favor buyers. The market has shifted from being balanced in October to becoming a buyer's market.
With more people working from home, we expect developers to begin marketing larger apartments to meet buyer preferences, which may put additional downward pressure on the values of smaller units as more generous floor plans come to market.
At Mortgage Sandbox, we would like developers to build 4-bedroom condos because:
Not everyone can afford to buy a house for their family.
Canadians who now work from home need more room to separate their workspace from their living space.
Many Canadians with longer working hours find it challenging to stay on top of necessary house upkeep (i.e., mowing lawns, clearing eaves, shovelling sidewalks).
Many people prefer to live in higher-density neighbourhoods with all the essential amenities within walking distance.
Metro Victoria Townhouse Prices
The townhouse market is now a balanced market where buyers and sellers have roughly equal negotiating power, but inventory has grown significantly in favour of buyers compared with last year. Purchase demand has edged up only slightly, while the supply of active townhouse listings has surged, leaving buyers with more options and giving them more leverage on terms and conditions.
Still, townhouses remain a challenge for many first-time homebuyers because overall affordability is stretched, even if conditions are gradually becoming more favourable on the supply side.
Still a challenge for first-time homebuyers
Metro Victoria's home prices are not very affordable. A homebuyer household earning $70,000 (the median Metro Victoria household before-tax income) can only get a $250,000 mortgage. For a homebuyer to purchase a benchmark priced condo, they would need to save hundreds of thousands for a down payment or receive a very generous gift from family. For most people, that is just not possible.
What about the rest of BC?
Read the Vancouver Home Price Forecast and Okanagan Home Price Forecast.
2. Where are Metro Victoria home prices headed?
There is significant uncertainty in the forecasts for 2027 and 2028. Recent trends indicate softening demand, rising inventory levels, and prices that are either plateauing or gently declining. As a result, potential price increases over the next few years may be limited unless there is a substantial change in the underlying fundamentals.
Our 5-Factor Analysis
Check out our full assessment of the five factors that drive these forecasts. These five forces help explain why several forecasters are anticipating softer price performance or potential price drops. We look at Core Demand, Non-Core Demand, Supply, Government Interventions, and Consumer Sentiment.
How do we arrive at our forecast range?
Key External Variables
Outside of the 5-factor model, there are factors outside the market that have a possibility of a knock-on effect on the market. They are responsible for the width between the high and low ends of our forecasts to 2027 and 2028. Many of the forecasters we've surveyed have different expectations for:
As a result of the federal government’s immigration policy pivot, how much lower will population growth be compared to recent years?
Will mortgage rates reset at a “new-normal range” that is two percent higher than Canadians have grown used to? Or will they return to pre-pandemic levels?
Will Canada’s trade disputes with major partners lead to weaker economic growth or a recession that would further pressure housing demand and prices?
⇓ Continued Below ⇓
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Methodolgy
At Mortgage Sandbox, we provide a price range rather than attempting a single prediction because many real estate risks can impact prices. Risks are events that may or may not happen. As a result, we review various forecasts from leading lenders and real estate firms. We then present the most optimistic estimates, the most pessimistic prediction, and the average forecast.
Would you like to learn more about real estate risk? We've written a comprehensive report explaining the uncertainty level in the Canadian real estate market.
Our forecast inputs:
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3. Is it a good time to sell a home in Victoria?
Annual Real Estate Cycle
The annual real estate cycle usually favours sellers in the first half of the year, and this seasonal pattern remains relevant in the current environment.
Current Strategies
From a seller’s perspective, more of the structural and macro changes now in play tend to influence prices downward or keep them capped, so this year may still be a better time to sell than in a few years’ time, particularly for more commoditized product. Remember that the detached, townhouse, and apartment markets are on different trajectories, with detached still relatively stronger and apartments under more downward pressure.
Professional Advice
Our analysis is at the macro, birds-eye level. There are nuances at the neighbourhood level, depending on the property type and condition.
Sellers should always consult a mortgage broker early to prioritize flexible loan conditions and reduce the risk of mortgage cancellation penalties. Find out more about the benefits of a mortgage broker.
Also, consult more than one real estate agent. Sometimes, agents will tell you what you want to hear so they can win the listing and then lower your expectations once you're bound to the contract. You'll want to get a realistic assessment of what cosmetic changes need to be made to lift the perceived property value, what recent properties like yours have sold for, and where the market is trending. With our analysis in your back pocket, you'll be able to have a meaningful conversation and challenge anything they say that is inconsistent with the data.
Planning to Sell? Check out our Complete Home Seller’s Guide.
Fixed or Variable rate mortgage?
Find out where mortgage rates are headed before you start to negotiate.
4. Is this a good time to buy a Victoria property?
Annual Real Estate Cycle
The annual real estate cycle usually favours buyers in late summer and autumn, and this pattern is expected to persist into 2027 and 2028.
Current Strategies
Prices in several segments have flattened or begun to drift lower, and supply is rising across detached, townhouse, and apartment markets.
These factors would lead many buyers to conclude that later in 2027 or even 2028 could offer more favourable entry points, particularly if inventory continues to accumulate and sellers grow more motivated.
However, while mortgage rates are easing, they still feel high to most buyers, and there is no guarantee that borrowing costs will fall all the way back to prior lows. It is almost impossible to time the market perfectly.
However, if you are buying your forever home and don't plan to sell for a decade or more, the risks of buying now are lower than they were when prices and rates were both surging.
If you are considering buying, be sure to drive a hard bargain and pay as close to market value as possible. Also, don't bite off more than you can chew when it comes to financing, especially in a market where prices could remain flat or soften further.
Professional Advice
Buyers should always consult a mortgage broker early in the process to obtain a pre-approval. Although current interest rates are easing, they are expected to rise within the next 9 to 18 months. With pre-approval, you can lock in a rate for 4 months before closing, helping mitigate financial risk.
Additionally, it's wise to consult more than one real estate agent. You need someone who will work with you on your terms. Buyer agents can increase their commission income by encouraging you to spend more or transact more quickly. Their earnings are tied to the total annual transaction volume, so they earn the same commission regardless of how much time they spend helping you find a home that meets your needs and has strong long-term investment potential.
Planning to Buy? Check out our Complete Home Buyer’s Guide so we can walk you through the end-to-end process and get you ready to buy your new home!
How much home can you afford?
Our mortgage calculator takes uses up-to-date mortgage rates and calculates the price of a home you could afford.
Here are some recent headlines you might be interested in:
B.C. home sales market struggles in February across all regions (CityNews | Mar 12)
Here's why bets are rising for interest rate hikes including for Canada (Financial Post | Mar 09)
How to keep up with Bank of Canada interest rate updates in 2026 (Daily Hive | Mar 03)
Bank of Canada: sometimes rate hikes needed even when economy is weak (Reuters | Mar 02)
Zero population growth expected in Canada this year: budget watchdog (CBC News | Feb 26)
Slow start to 2026 hides Canada’s sharpest housing market split in years (CMP | Feb 19)
Victoria’s housing market shows early signs of oversupply (Victoria News | Feb 04)
Bryan Yu: B.C. housing market is weaker than the numbers suggest (BIV | Jan 28)
Posthaste: These three provinces are bucking Canada's housing downturn (Financial Post | Jan 20)
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Activity to Remain Subdued This Year (TD Bank | Jan 19)
What's in store for Canada's housing market in 2026? (CBC | Jan 15)
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