Metro Calgary
Real Estate Trends and Price Forecast

HIGHLIGHTS

• Metro Calgary home values show mixed trends depending on property type. While detached houses and townhouses remain in seller's market territory, the condo apartment market has shifted into balanced conditions, giving buyers more negotiating power.

• Multi-factor analysis identifies Metro Calgary as a moderate-risk real estate market.

• Mortgage rates remain elevated compared to historic lows, constraining affordability, but recent stabilization has provided some relief for buyers.

• Economic uncertainty persists due to shifting immigration policies, trade wars, the war in Iran, and fluctuations in interest rates. All factors that influence future market dynamics.

This article covers:

1. What is the current state of the property market?

2. Where are prices headed?

3. Should investors sell?

4. Is this a good time to buy?

1. What is the current state of the Calgary property market?

Overview of the Calgary Property Market

Metro Calgary has a population of roughly 1.7 million and was ranked 54th among the world’s 100 best cities by Resonance Research.

Calgary was ranked the fifth most livable city in the world and the most livable city in North America in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s annual list of the world’s most livable cities.

Calgary is often praised for its unique blend of big-city amenities and a friendly, welcoming atmosphere. Here are some factors that make it an attractive city to live in:

1. Proximity to Nature: Calgary's location at the foothills of the Rocky Mountains is a major draw. Residents enjoy easy access to breathtaking natural landscapes, perfect for hiking, skiing, camping, and other outdoor activities. Banff National Park, a world-renowned natural wonder, is just a short drive away.

2. High Quality of Life: Calgary consistently ranks high in global livability surveys. This is due to factors like low crime rates, clean air and water, excellent healthcare, and a well-developed infrastructure. The city also has a strong sense of community and a friendly, welcoming atmosphere.

3. Affordable Housing: Compared to other major Canadian cities like Toronto and Vancouver, Calgary offers more affordable housing options, whether you're looking to buy or rent. This makes it an attractive choice for families and young professionals seeking a good balance between cost of living and quality of life.

4. Sunny Weather and Chinooks: Calgary is one of the sunniest major cities in Canada, with over 300 days of sunshine per year. It also experiences unique weather phenomena called Chinooks, warm, dry winds that can raise temperatures significantly in the winter, providing a welcome respite from the cold.

5. Lower Taxes: Compared to many other Canadian cities, Calgary residents benefit from lower property taxes, no property transfer taxes, and no provincial sales tax. This can result in significant savings.

Overall, Calgary is an excellent place for young families. It offers a high quality of life, affordability, and low taxes.

While both the detached house and apartment markets in Calgary remain in seller's territory, there's a noticeable trend of increasing inventory, which is providing buyers with more options.

Metro Calgary Detached House Prices

The market for detached houses in Metro Calgary remains a seller's market, unchanged from last year. Sellers continue to have the upper hand in negotiations, and inventory levels are relatively unchanged from the previous year.

Purchase demand has dropped slightly, while the supply of active listings has also seen a small decrease. Over the past three months, benchmark and median prices have increased in favour of sellers. However, looking back over the past twelve months, the benchmark detached house price has dropped modestly in favour of buyers.

For buyers, this mixed picture means some opportunities may still exist, but sellers remain in a strong position. Sellers may need to price competitively given the year-over-year decline.

New Construction Home Prices in Metro Calgary

New home prices are generally consistent with trends in existing home resales. New home construction remains at record levels as developers continue to bring new housing stock to the market.

Does this concern you? Read the Pros and Cons of Buying Pre-sale Homes

Market Risk

Based on Mortgage Sandbox Analysis, Calgary is at moderate risk of a market correction.

Metro Calgary Condo Apartment Prices

The condo apartment market in Calgary has transitioned into a balanced market, and trends are shifting in favour of buyers. Inventory levels have improved significantly for buyers compared to last year. Months of inventory have increased notably.

Purchase demand has dropped substantially, while the supply of active listings has seen a marginal decrease. Over the past three months, the benchmark apartment price has edged up slightly in favour of sellers, while the median price has dipped modestly in favour of buyers. The balanced conditions mean buyers and sellers have roughly equal negotiating power.

Metro Calgary Townhouse Prices

Townhouses remain in a seller's market, but the trend is moving toward buyers. Inventory levels have improved notably for buyers compared to last year, with months of inventory increasing substantially.

Purchase demand has dropped substantially, while the supply of active listings has increased modestly. Over the past three months, the benchmark townhouse price has remained flat, while the median price has dropped noticeably in favour of buyers. Over the past twelve months, however, the benchmark townhouse price has dropped significantly in favour of buyers.

This mixed trend suggests sellers still have negotiating power in the short term, but buyers may find better value compared to a year ago.

Very affordable for first-time homebuyers

Even in current market conditions, a condo remains within reach for most Calgarians. A homebuyer household earning the median before-tax household income can obtain a mortgage sufficient to buy a benchmark condo. However, a detached house purchase is moving out of reach for many local buyers.

What about the rest of the West?

Read the Edmonton Home Price Forecast, Vancouver Home Price Forecast Forecast, and Okanagan Valley Home Price Forecast.

2. Where are Metro Calgary prices headed?

There is considerable uncertainty in forecasts looking out toward 2028. Many forecasters have different expectations regarding:

• Due to the war in Iran, Alberta will face higher living costs from increased gas prices, but will higher oil prices benefit Alberta by leading to the expansion of the oil sands and the creation of more jobs? Or will oil companies hesitate to make long-term investments due to the uncertainties of a potentially short war?

• Additionally, will the federal government’s recent changes to migration policy result in a shrinking population?

• Will mortgage rates decline to the 2 to 3 percent range that Canadians have come to expect?

• Finally, could Canada’s trade disputes with the United States lead to a recession?

How do we arrive at our forecast range? Check out our full assessment of the five factors that drive these forecasts. These five forces help explain why several forecasters are anticipating price drops.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we provide a price range rather than attempting a single prediction because many real estate risks can impact prices. Risks are events that may or may not happen. As a result, we review several forecasts from leading lenders and real estate firms, and we then present the most optimistic estimates, the most pessimistic predictions, and the average forecast. Want to learn more about real estate risk? We’ve written a comprehensive report explaining the uncertainty level in the Canadian real estate market.

Our forecast inputs:

• CMHC Housing Outlook

• Reuters Housing Forecast Poll

• Royal LePage House Price Forecast

• RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook

• Canadian Real Estate Association Quarterly Forecast

• RBC Home Resale and Price Forecast

• TD Bank Economic Housing Outlook

• BMO Housing Outlook

• Calgary Real Estate Board Forecast

3. Is it a good time to sell your Calgary property?

From a seller’s perspective, the market remains favourable for detached houses and townhouses, which are still in seller's market territory. The annual real estate cycle usually favours sellers in the first half of the year. If you plan to sell, now may be a better time than later, particularly because a US trade war could disrupt the market.

Condo sellers face a balanced market, meaning they have equal negotiating power with buyers and may need to be more flexible on pricing.

Sellers should always consult a mortgage broker early to prioritize flexible loan conditions and reduce the risk of mortgage cancellation penalties.

Planning to Sell? Check out our Complete Home Seller Guide

4. Is this a good time to buy a Calgary home?

Mortgage rates are relatively high compared to historic lows, but have recently normalized. The annual real estate cycle usually favours buyers in late summer and autumn.

For detached houses and townhouses, sellers still have the upper hand, but the year-over-year price declines in benchmark values suggest that buyers may find better deals than they would have a year ago. For condos, the balanced market gives buyers equal footing and improved inventory choices.

If you are considering buying, negotiate firmly and pay as close to market value as possible. Avoid taking on more financing than you can comfortably manage. A well-planned financing strategy remains essential.

Are you Planning to Buy? Check out our Complete Home Buyer’s Guide so we can walk you through the end-to-end process and get you ready to buy your new home!

Here are some recent headlines you might be interested in:

• Spring housing market sees slow rebound as prices edge up (MSN | May 19)

• Tempered enthusiasm': No spring real estate bloom, but buyers are slowly coming back (CTV News | May 19)

• Calgary home sales fall 5.7% in April, board cites less urgency among buyers (CBC | May 05)

• Calgary home sales fall 5.7 per cent in April, board cites less urgency among buyers (CTV News | May 01)

• Bank of Canada holds key interest rate at 2.25%, warning future decisions are clouded by uncertainty (CBC | Apr 28)

• House prices dropping in Canada's most expensive cities, but still out of reach for many (CBC | Apr 26)

• War adds ‘uncertainty premium’ to Canadian mortgages as fixed rates jump (Wealth Professional | Apr 26)

• Rate cuts seen as more likely next move for Bank of Canada: TD (Canadian Mortgage Trends | Apr 26)

• How the US-Iran ceasefire could impact Canada’s housing market (Mortgage Professional America | Apr 26)

• Mortgages in arrears in Canada – what the numbers mean (Canadian Bankers Association | Apr 26)

• Canadian Home Prices Fall 16th Straight Month on Higher Rates (Bloomberg | Apr 26)

• Bank of Canada set to hold rates at 2.25% as oil shock likely short-lived (Reuters | Apr 26)

• Market Outlook: Bank of Canada may cut rates despite hike expectations (BNN Bloomberg | Apr 26)

• Canada slashed migration and housing costs dropped. There may be lessons for Australia (The Guardian | Apr 26)

• Here’s what the CREA now estimates the average Canadian home will sell for (BNN Bloomberg | Apr 26)

• Calgary's most painful home sales of 2026: See which listings struggled (Calgary Herald | Apr 26)

• Calgary housing market splits as detached holds firm and condos feel the strain (Mortgage Professional America | Apr 26)

• Calgary housing market holds steady, condo prices fall: report (CTV News | Apr 26)

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